Ethiopian, Tigrayan Forces Must Pull Back from the Brink
Statement from Refugees International Senior Fellow Dr. Sarah Miller:
“Military and political escalations in northern Ethiopia are beginning to mirror conditions that led to the 2020 conflict there. Tigray is now dangerously close to war once again – a war that would be devastating for civilians in Tigray – and could spillover across the Horn.
Conditions are beginning to dangerously resemble the humanitarian blockade we saw enacted in Tigray during the last war. Amid rising tensions between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian federal authorities ahead of June elections, Federal Government authorities are withholding critical funding, which limits humanitarian assistance and services for civilians in Tigray. Health and education authorities in Tigray have sounded the alarm that they cannot pay staff or continue critical work. This is only compounding harms and shortages caused in the wake of major aid cuts by the United States and other donors in 2025. Meanwhile, nearly 1 million people in Tigray remain internally displaced from the 2020-2022 conflict, who are largely dependent on limited aid to survive.
Local partners in Tigray and women’s health experts told Refugees International that the population is preparing for the worst. Some women’s groups are asking for emergency contraception, in addition to the long list of supplies needed – a grim reminder that rape was a weapon of war during the last conflict. Health experts in Tigray told Refugees International that women have been calling local groups to ask where they can hide if fighting restarts. Local civil society groups are scrambling to stand up a gender-based violence hotline, but if telecoms in the region are once again cut, women will be left with few options. Health professionals are doing what they can, but without pay and without adequate medicine or supplies, IDPs and their wider communities are growing more desperate by the day. And while local groups are working tirelessly to provide assistance, they need more resources. Coupled with devastating fuel shortages, the population is on the brink of disaster.
The renewed threat of conflict follows years of devastating fighting and the failure of the post-war recovery. Between 2020 and 2022, hundreds of thousands in Tigray were killed in a conflict that was marked by widespread human rights violations, including conflict-related sexual violence. Many IDPs from the war have yet to return home, and are still huddling in schools and other inadequate shelters. Malnutrition, cholera, and other diseases have spread at alarming rates. Communities have not had the support they need to start recovering from the last war, and it would be catastrophic to have to endure another war.
The latest tensions also threaten further regional instability. They come amid accusations by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) that Ethiopia has been allowing drone operations to be launched from its territory, including one that recently hit the airport in Khartoum. At the same time, Ethiopia has accused the SAF of supporting rebels in northern Tigray.
The EU and the UK have raised alarm. The United States and the African Union should join them and exert pressure on Prime Minister Abiy and Tigrayan officials to step back from the brink. The United States should also pressure all parties to uphold the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (the Pretoria Agreement), which sets out conditions for the return of IDPs, and return to political dialogue. It should resume humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, including Joint Emergency Operations in Ethiopia (JEOP) funding beyond June, and scale up other forms of support, including access to medications, shelter, and additional food assistance. Given the dire need across the country, the United States should ensure support continues to all regions of Ethiopia and that Tigray is not cut off from assistance.”
Refugees International and partners are co-hosting an on-the-record, virtual event on Thursday, May 7 at 10:00 a.m. ET on the situation in Tigray and the unique and compounding challenges facing women and girls as the risk of renewed conflict grows. RSVP to attend here.
Refugees International experts Abdullahi Halakhe and Dr. Sarah Miller are available for media interviews about the situation in Tigray. For more information or to schedule an interview, please contact Sarah Sheffer at ssheffer@refugeesinternational.org.