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Acts of Betrayal: The Scope of the Problem

North Korea Report
THE SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM

The exact number of North Korean migrants and asylum seekers in China is unknown. The most common estimate is 100,000 – 300,000. This estimate is problematic, first because the range itself is so wide and second because there are no credible publicly available data to support any exact figure. While it is plausible that hundreds of thousands of North Koreans have crossed the border since the advent of the famine in 1994, a significant portion of the movement across the border into China has been and remains back and forth, with North Koreans seeking temporary employment or emergency relief from support networks, then returning to their homes with cash and goods to ensure the survival of their families.

Most North Koreans who come into China do so by crossing the Tumen River into Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, where 854,000 ethnic Koreans with Chinese citizenship reside.1 The capital of Yanbian,Yanji, has a population of 350,000, of whom 210,000 are ethnic Koreans. These population figures suggest that the high end estimates for the numbers of North Koreans in China are implausible, since a large portion of the 300,000 North Koreans living illegally would find it difficult to live underground in a city of 350,000, and would be even more conspicuous in rural areas where strangers are easily identified.2

An unpublished estimate of the number of North Koreans living in Yanbian in September 2002 was 20,000.3 In its report on the status of North Korean asylum seekers, prepared for the U.S. Congress in February 2005, the U.S. Department of State estimates the current number to be between 30,000 and 50,000.4

The lack of data is symptomatic of the overall vulnerability of the North Korean population in China. The Chinese authorities themselves either have no concrete idea of the scope of the in-migration, or they refuse to make public data that may be available. Church networks and humanitarian organizations in Yanbian make some effort to monitor the scale of border crossings, but they do not publish these data for fear of jeopardizing their operations.
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