08/11/2005

For the second time in two months, a former rebel leader from the south of Sudan has joined the government in Khartoum, pledging peace and unity for all of Sudan. Despite encouraging words, significant obstacles to peace remain. Only firm national resolve and skilled international involvement will give peace a chance in this violence-prone country.

On August 11, Salva Kiir, who helped lead south Sudan in a 21-year civil war against the government in Khartoum, joined that government as First Vice President. Significantly, he took the oath of office with his hand on a Bible in the capital of a largely—and sometimes radically—Islamic country.

Slightly more than a month ago, John Garang, the charismatic leader who guided the south through a brutal civil war to peace, also took the oath of office amid celebrations in Khartoum. But he was killed in a July 31 helicopter crash, raising doubts about the prospects of peace.

For much of the time since its independence from Great Britain in 1956, Sudan has been afflicted by civil war. The conflict in the south left two million people dead and drove nearly five million from their homes. In 2003, just as the government and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the south agreed to the outline of a peace agreement, fighting broke out in the Darfur region of western Sudan. As many as 400,000 people have died there of war-related causes, and more than two million have been displaced. President Bush has accused forces associated with the government of Sudan of genocide in Darfur. Recently, skirmishes have also broken out in the eastern region of Sudan. The decades of brutal fighting have produced large refugee flows to neighboring countries, creating a burden throughout the region.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement that Garang and the government signed earlier this year, raised the prospect of peace, not just in the south, but throughout Sudan, Africa’s largest country. In remarks yesterday, Kiir said that he would work to bring Darfur and eastern Sudan into the peace process. At the ceremony, his former adversary, President al Bashir pledged that the government would work with the SPLM to promote harmony and prosperity throughout Sudan.

Kiir also vowed to help keep Sudan together. “From its inception, the SPLM leaders, of which I remain the only survivor, have fought for unity,” he said. “The comprehensive peace agreement…provides the last chance for Sudan’s unity,” he said, according to news reports. In the past, Kiir has been less committed to unity and, like many SPLM leaders, had talked of an independent southern Sudan.

Kiir, a long time military leader, lacks Garang’s international stature and diplomatic skill. But some analysts think that he may turn out to be a more effective and unifying leader than his predecessor, particularly in the south, which is torn by tribal rivalries. In an open letter to Kiir, The Khartoum Monitor -- an English-language, pro- SPLM newspaper -- wrote: “You were not fully involved in the making of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, but its implementation is now on your head. But do not despair. You enjoy many advantages that even Dr. Garang did not have. Dr. Garang had powerful enemies in the south; you do not.” Analysts expect that Kiir will be a more democratic leader than the autocratic Garang.

Kiir faces several major challenges that he cannot overcome alone.

First, he must consolidate and institutionalize peace in the south. To do this he needs cooperation from the government, which has proven itself adept at talking peace while waging war. He also needs consistent and generous support from donor nations to rebuild the devastated south. Having bled so much in war, the people in the south need to learn to feed themselves in peace.

Second, he must use his influence with rebel leaders in other civil conflicts to press for peace. Talks designed to achieve a peace agreement in Darfur were supposed to resume on Aug. 24, but Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM), the leading rebel group, recently told the United Nations that it is not prepared to return to the bargaining table then. The U.S., Eritrea and other countries with influence over the SLM must put pressure on the rebels to resume peace talks. UN officials believe that the government has decided that it wants to end the war in Darfur, both to escape international opprobrium and isolation and to pave the way for developing oil resources in the region. Whether or not this is true, the U.S. and others must keep pressure on Khartoum to stop the killing and work for peace.

Garang’s death tested the peace process. So far all parties—the government in Khartoum, the SPLM and countries such as the U.S. and Kenya, which played a key role in promoting peace in the south—have all rhetorically redoubled their commitment to peace. Now the rhetoric must become reality.

Ken Bacon is the president of Refugees International.