08/01/2003

The Shangri-la valley of Bamiyan Province illustrates how much Afghanistan has improved since the overthrow of the Taliban in November 2001.  Thousands of refugees have returned here to rebuild their homes and their lives.  Their wheat and potato crops look good.  Their kids are in school.   Although the Taliban blew up the ancient statues of Buddha that dominated the valley, they did not shatter the spirit of the Afghan people. Like a patient in remission, Afghanistan today shows signs of vigor.  But the new health is fragile.  Farmers acknowledge that a year of drought would devastate them.  Reconstruction aid has yet to reach most of the people, including the rural areas where 70% of the population lives.  Although more than two million refugees have returned home, many live precariously. Visiting Afghanistan is an exercise in tempered hope.  Change since the Taliban, especially in the cities, has been breathtaking.  Millions of children are in school -- including many young girls.  Afghans have resumed an old custom of Friday afternoon picnics in parks and half-rebuilt mountain towns.  The Taliban had banned picnics. But short-term progress does not dictate long-term success, and this country may have the door slammed in its face before another year has passed.  The $4.5 billion of economic aid pledged in Tokyo in January 2002 is well short of the $15 to $18 billion the World Bank says will be needed to reconstruct Afghanistan over a 10 year period.  Moreover, big reconstruction projects are just now rolling off the drawing board.  It’s time for aid donors to put their money where their mouths are.  U.S. plans to boost reconstruction funding to $1 billion over the next year or so are encouraging. Beyond funding, reconstruction efforts are crippled by insecurity.  One third of Afghanistan is off limits to travel by UN officials without armed guards.  It will be years before an Afghan national army and police force -- now being trained by the U.S. and Germany -- are large and effective enough to be deployed nationwide.  In the meantime, foreign military and police are essential to maintain order and help extend the authority of the central government.   But the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) of 5,000 personnel from 20 countries, remains locked in Kabul.  Despite the pleas of Afghan President Karzai and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, no country has been willing to expand ISAF’s mandate beyond the capital.  And though the U.S. and its Coalition allies have 11,000 soldiers in Afghanistan charged with hunting down Taliban and Al Qaeda, the Coalition declines to use its troops for the security of ordinary Afghans, whose rights are routinely abused.  These abuses by warlords and local “commanders” range from intimidation, looting and “taxation,” to conscription and sexual assault. Meanwhile, President Bush has promised Afghan President Hamid Karzai that reconstruction of the 300 mile long highway between Kabul and the former Taliban stronghold of Kandahar will be completed by 2003.  But the highway goes through dangerous territory and USAID plans only to use several hundred recently trained Afghan policemen as security guards.  Are they up to the task? Insecurity is also a threat to national elections scheduled for June 2004.  With much of the countryside dominated by warlords, the viability of elections is questionable without a much greater foreign commitment to help register voters and to organize, monitor, and provide security for the election -- especially if women are to participate in the process. The Afghan interim government -- with assistance from the international community -- must complete housekeeping tasks of its own.  High on the agenda is reform of the Ministry of Defense, currently dominated by Tajiks from the Panjsheer Valley.  Efforts to disarm 100,000 militia throughout Afghanistan and create a national army will fail if power within the Ministry is not shared with other regions and other ethnic groups.   Emphasis on security must be complemented by fostering a legal and judicial system that can ensure rule of law and respect for the human rights of Afghans.  These “political reconstruction” tasks are not receiving the priority they merit from the Afghan government and the foreign donors who are more enamored of visible, quick impact projects. .          Afghanistan will falter if the government and the international community do not address urgently the impediments to the country’s progress: security and the expansion of ISAF, reform of the Ministry of Defense, the creation of an effective judicial system, and potential funding shortages.  The next twelve months leading up to the election should tell the tale.  Will the reconstruction of Afghanistan, pledged so enthusiastically after the fall of the Taliban, be on the road to success or failure.         -------------------------------- Larry Thompson and Michelle Brown of Refugees International recently returned from Afghanistan.