WORLD BRIDGE BLOG

Refugees International launched its “Year of Sudan” at historic Walpole House, on Chiswick Mall overlooking the Thames, last Tuesday, February 9. The house, which is famous for its depiction in William Thackery’s Vanity Fair, was filled to the brim with over 90 guests to hear Africa Editor for the Economist, Richard Cockett, interviewed by acclaimed Sudanese-born anchor of BBC’s World News Today, Zeinab Badawi. Hosted by Hadeel Ibrahim, Lord and Lady Malloch Brown and Mariella Frostrup and Jason McCue, guests were also introduced to RI’s brand new president Dan Glickman who will begin officially in April.

Cockett has authored Sudan, Darfur and the Failure of an African State, an absorbing account of Sudan’s recent history. The evening’s discussion focused not only on Sudan’s recent history but also its immediate future. As set down in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended 22 years of war between the North and the South, Sudan will hold countrywide national elections in April – the first time in 24 years -- leading up to an independence referendum for the South in January 2011. RI Board Member former Senator John Danforth was instrumental in making the CPA a reality. Now, the concern is that the CPA may be on the verge of collapse.

All of this was discussed and debated Tuesday night before an audience that included members of the British Foreign Office, journalists, representatives of the United Nations, foundations, Sudan and many friends who are part of RI’s London Circle. Cockett talked about the “anxiety about the upcoming elections.” One of the main problems, he said, is that Sudan’s leader Omar al-Bashir is running for president. If Bashir, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur, were to win, Cockett believes that civil war might reignite between the North and the South.

Another problem is that 2.5 million Southerners still remain in the North after the end of civil war. The question is whether their votes will be counted. An additional predicament arrises if the South decides on independence in 2011. What will happen to these Southerners?

Cockett thought that the South would definitely choose independence and that this would probably be a good thing. BBC anchor Badawi took issue with Cockett on this and so began a lively discussion on Sudan’s fate. Some participants in the discussion were more gloomy than others about the prospects of an independent South. They predicted that the South would be a “pre-failed state.” Others focused on how to prepare for a “soft landing” or an “amicable divorce” between North and South Sudan.

RI’s Acting President Joel Charny ended the evening -- and concluded the debate -- by noting that the international community and all non-governmental organizations had to have a contingency plan. He noted that RI had a mission right now in Sudan to push for just that. Said Charny: “We want the international community and the NGO community to think this could go wrong. Don’t think it will be a soft landing. You are not ready. You are not paying attention. If you are supporting 2010 as the year of Sudan, you are supporting RI’s work to prepare if things go right or if things go wrong.”

On March 2nd in Washington, DC, RI will be hosting a Washington Circle on “The Year of Sudan: What Lies Ahead,” featuring Valentino Achak Deng, Sudanese “Lost Boy” and the subject of David Eggers’s What is the What, and Washington Post Columnist Michael Gerson. RI’s findings from its recent mission to Sudan will also be discussed. For more information about this event, go to http://www.refugeesinternational.org/events/year-sudan-what-lies-ahead

Eileen Shields-West is a Refugees International Board Member who travelled with RI to Sudan in February 2009.

The above photo features event speakers Zeinab Badawi and Richard Cockett.