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Barack Obama may not know it, but soon he will have refugees on his mind.

In a recent interview with TIME Magazine, the president-elect talked about the foreign policy priorities that will occupy him and his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton.

"There’s no doubt that managing the transition in Iraq is going to be a top priority," he said.  "Managing a more effective strategy in Afghanistan will be a top priority.  Recognizing that it is not simply an Afghanistan problem but it’s an Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-Kashmir-Iran problem is going to be a priority."  He also said that “The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be a priority."

All of these crises are characterized by displacement problems.  Here is a rundown:

Iraq.  One out of every five Iraqis is displaced for a total displaced population of five million.  About 2.7 million people are displaced within Iraq and the rest live as refugees, primarily in Jordan and Syria.  For the last five years the U.S. policy has been to create a sense of rule of law in Iraq and build up Iraqi security forces so the U.S. military can withdraw, leaving behind a stable, secure Iraq.  But Iraq can’t be stable or secure as long as 20% of its population is displaced.  It will be a difficult challenge to give refugees and displaced people the confidence to return home as U.S. forces pull out by the end of 2011 deadline.

Afghanistan.  The new administration is right to see Afghanistan as part of a larger set of regional issues including India, Iran, and Pakistan.  More than five million Afghans have returned home, mainly from Iran and Pakistan, since the Taliban fell in 2002.  But Afghanistan, supported by the U.S. and its allies, did not do enough to help returning refugees rebuild their communities and livelihoods.  As a result, many returnees are living precariously.  In addition, a resurgent Taliban is creating security problems along the Afghan-Pakistani border, generating new waves of displacement.

Israel-Palestine.  Mr. Obama has said that he wants to start working toward a Middle East peace agreement as soon as possible.  One of the most contentious issues in those talks, as in the past, will be how to deal with the plight of more than four million Palestinian refugees.  Palestinians insist that they have the right to return to their former homes in Israel.  However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has denied the right of return.

There are, of course, other large displaced populations; conflicts in Burma, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan have displaced millions of people. Increased U.S. and international diplomatic and developmental engagement in these areas would be a big help.  But Mr. Obama has made it clear that his top priorities are Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East.

In these three cases, durable peace won’t be possible without settling displacement problems. Iraq is likely to get the earliest attention, since the U.S. withdrawal is already underway.  The Iraqi government has adopted a National Policy on Displacement designed “to mobilize national and international efforts to develop relevant solutions and reconstruct the fabric of Iraqi society.”  At the same time many Iraqi refugees in surrounding countries are running out of resources, forcing them to think about returning home or resettling elsewhere.

The massive refugee returns to Afghanistan showed that refugees go home when conflicts end.  But the U.S., its allies, and the government of Afghanistan did not do enough to support successful return and reintegration.  Many returnees aren’t able to earn a living. This problem could also occur in Iraq, but there is time to avoid it.  Creating conditions for successful return has to be a U.S.-Iraqi priority.

The first year of the Obama administration will be a crucial time for improving conditions for returnees in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Refugees International will be issuing independent evaluations and recommendations throughout the year.  We know that solving displacement problems now will help prevent new security challenges later.

I hope you will support our lifesaving work.

-- Kenneth Bacon