Kenya: From Disappointment to Opportunity

The news from Kenya in the first few months of 2008 could arguably perpetuate a certain cynicism about Africa and the intractability of problems on the continent. It has deeply shaken the image of Kenya as a stable, prospering African success story. Rather than a secure base from which international organizations can launch humanitarian operations in other countries, Kenya resembles instead one of its volatile neighbors, with over 1,000 dead and more than 300,000 displaced as a result of three months of election violence.

If Kenya fails to uphold basic democratic institutions, what hope do we have for resolving crises in Sudan, Congo, or Ivory Coast?

The violence in Kenya should not make us give up in despair. Instead, it must motivate us to search for intelligent solutions, to encourage those with the means to alleviate a dangerous and desperate situation to do so, and to hold accountable the entities that should ultimately be responsible for the people affected by the crisis.

This cynicism is also harmful in that it glosses over the complexity and uniqueness of each problem. Contrary to impressions created by the media, Kenya’s story is the not the story of an economically sound, democratic island of stability gone bad. As political scientist Joel Barkan points out, “[d]eep schisms [] existed within the political elite that reflected persistent divides in Kenyan society.”

The Kikuyus and related ethnic groups, excluded from government throughout the 1980s and 1990s, have since 2002 dominated the government of Mwai Kibaki. His government helped solidify Kikuyus, prominent in the business community, as the largest, most educated, and wealthiest ethnic group in Kenya. The presidential campaign of Raila Odinga, a member of the sizeable Luo ethnic group, emphasized the need to distribute opportunity and wealth more equitably among Kenya’s 42 ethnic groups.

Experts and civil society organizations suggest that the proposed government of national unity does not signify the end of Kenya’s political crisis. Rather, it opens for discussion the creation of a democratic system – a kind of federalism – which better serves the interests of all of Kenya’s minorities. Therefore, Kenya’s leaders, with the pressure of Kenya’s churches, civil society groups, free press, and international partners, still have an opportunity to convert a source of frustration into an opportunity for political transformation and progress.

--Katherine Southwick

Kenya: What Would Hempstone Think?

As the violence slowly subsides in Kenya, I’ve been wondering: What would Smith Hempstone think?

Smith Hempstone, who died in 2006, was the self-described “rogue” US Ambassador to Kenya in the early 1990s. Hempstone played an audacious public role advocating for multi-party democracy and an end to persecution of dissidents by the regime of then-President Moi. State-supported newspapers printed headlines of “Shut Up, Mr. Ambassador,” while the Kenyan opposition praised him as “the second hero of the liberation.” When he wasn’t verbalizing his disgust with rampant corruption and dictatorial rule, Hempstone could still make a point by falling asleep during a state function.

At that time, I was in high school as the daughter of another US diplomat working in Nairobi. It was a time fraught with political uncertainty, economic volatility, and great personal risk for speaking out. But overall it was an exciting and optimistic time for Kenya and democracy in Africa. It was before America’s discouraging pullout from Somalia, the horrors of Rwanda and before al-Qaeda bombed the U.S. embassy in Nairobi. Kenyans and the international community could admit to ethnic tensions within society, but they never would have conceived of the election failure and ensuing violence that recently gripped the country.

Negotiations continue between President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga that may well end the violence. But I remember when both men sought to bring democratic change to Kenya. In 1992, Kenya held its first, genuine multi-party election. The incumbent president’s party narrowly won and stayed in power for two more five-year terms while the opposition organized and gained strength. I remember one night before a performance of our school play in 1994, when the audience held a moment of silence to honor the passing of Oginga Odinga, Raila Odinga’s father. Oginga Odinga had been a prominent figure in Kenya’s struggle for independence and became a key leader in the opposition movement in the 1990s. I recall President Kibaki, also an opposition leader at that time, attending a US Embassy reception, where I admired his scholarly and mild-mannered demeanor. Hempstone lived to see Kibaki elected into his first term in office in 2002, an exemplary peaceful change in government.

Kenya’s upheavals today suggest that it was too soon to conclude that a democratic culture had become ingrained. If the vote-rigging allegations are true, then Kibaki’s party has degraded the very processes that peacefully brought him to power in 2002. Odinga’s vehement intransigence has called into question his willingness to accept unfavorable results of any truly legitimate process. And the inability of both sides to calm violent inclinations within certain regions of the country suggests an indifference towards humanity unbecoming of a democracy.

While we await the results of the negotiations between the two sides, I would like to think it’s not too late for Kenya. The nation’s stability is too important for the African continent and the world at large. Moreover, the legacies of the country’s founders and activists, including those of Odinga, Kibaki, Hempstone and anyone else who believes in democracy in Africa, remain on Kenya’s side.

--Katherine Southwick is a Bernstein Fellow for Refugees International. She lived in Kenya from 1990-1996.

Kenya: Peace Process Needed Now to End Ongoing Violence

Graphic images and video footage from the ongoing violence in Kenya have given those of us not living close to the conflict a real glimpse into what the situation is like on the ground. This recent video clip shows the desperate situation that many displaced Kenyans now find themselves in. Having once lived in ethnically diverse communities in the western Rift Valley region, they now worry that they will never be able to return home, for fear of retaliation from their former neighbors.

The worsening security situation is having a major impact on access to the displaced populations inside Kenya. Many humanitarian organizations cannot reach those most in need because of the ongoing violence. The conflict in Kenya also has wider regional humanitarian implications. Nairobi has long been the headquarters for many aid agencies that operate in less stable countries in the region like Sudan and Somalia. If the situation in Kenya becomes too volatile for these agencies to carry out their work, then it will have a serious impact on the vulnerable populations in neighboring countries who depend on international humanitarian assistance. It also has the potential to impact the work of Refugees International, since Nairobi is often a jumping off point for many of our missions conducted in the region. We recently had two colleagues pass through Nairobi on their way to Juba, where they are currently assessing the situation for returnees in South Sudan.

A serious peace and reconciliation process is needed in Kenya now. The involvement of former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in the negotiation process is a positive step forward, but it will take much longer to create a climate where Kenyans who have been forced to flee will feel safe and secure enough to return home again.

--Camilla Olson

Kenyan Violence Shows Fragility of Stable Nations

Kenya and “humanitarian crisis” just don’t go together. Kenya is one of the places we count on to be stable. To be a responsible host for refugees and the agencies that assist them. To be the logistical hub for agencies mounting operations in neighboring countries damaged by conflict.

Yet post-election violence in Kenya -- violence with an ethnic dimension -- is driving people from their homes. According to the Kenya Red Cross, the conflict between the primarily Kikuyu supporters of President Mwai Kibaki and the supporters of Raila Odinga, a Luo, has displaced 100,000 people. Road blocks set up by marauding gangs are preventing access to some of the displaced. 5,000 Kenyans have sought refuge in Uganda in recent days.

The combination of the ethnic fault lines and the use of machetes by some of the attackers has inevitably led to press accounts evoking the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which gangs organized by Hutu militants killed 800,000 Tutsis and Hutu members of opposition political parties as the United Nations and the major powers refused to intervene.

Evoking Rwanda is premature and even irresponsible. The Rwandan genocide was centrally planned and organized over a period of many months, awaiting the spark of the death of President Habyarimana in an air crash. What is happening in Kenya is spontaneous political violence by members of ethnic groups frustrated by their exclusion from political power for generations.

While the violence is unjustified, the anger is understandable. Initial reports had opposition candidate Odinga well in front, giving his followers the expectation that victory was at hand. The electoral commission’s validation of suspicious results from President Kibaki’s Kikuyu strongholds and subsequent declaration of him as the victor dashed those hopes.

Kenya was tantalizingly close to conducting an open election and having a smooth transition to new leadership, rare achievements in Africa. The apparent unwillingness of the ruling party to abide by the results has created a temporary humanitarian emergency that will require swift internal political action to solve, with assistance from the external mediators from the African Union and donor governments.

For me and for my colleagues at Refugees International, the events in Kenya underscore just how fragile our world is. We have enough collective experience to know that violence that produces displacement can erupt anywhere and at any time. Nonetheless, we want to be able to believe that there might be a few countries out there that are not going to fall apart. Most of us had Kenya fixed on the stable side of the ledger. As we enter 2008, chalk up another illusion and add Kenya to the list of vulnerable countries.

--Joel Charny
Vice President, Refugees International

Photo: Aerial footage of displaced people in the area where a
church was attacked near Eldoret, 193 miles northwest of Nairobi.
Credit: Reuters/Kenyan Red Cross via Reuters TV, courtesy www.alertnet.org.