President’s Corner: Cyclone Sidr Teaches Lessons for a Warming World

Cyclone Sidr inflicted death and destruction on Bangladesh, but the damage was limited by well planned actions to protect people in the storm’s path. In this respect, Bangladesh has lessons to teach the rest of the world as it struggles to deal with rising sea levels and other impacts of global warming.

I don’t mean to minimize the impact of the Nov. 15 storm: more than 3,200 people were killed, and 880 remain missing; an estimated 34,708 were injured; more than one million houses were damaged, and 366,000 were totally destroyed. According to the government of Bangladesh, more than seven million people were affected by the storm. The UN reports that 2.6 million people need immediate life-saving assistance, such as food, water, shelter and medical care.

These losses are terrible by any measure, but they are far less than storms of similar ferocity inflicted on Bangladesh in the past. An estimated 138,000 people died in 1991 when Cyclone Gorky hit, and Cyclone Bhola killed an estimated 500,000 people in 1970, when Bangladesh was still East Pakistan.

Sidr’s lower death toll reflects more than good luck. Over the last two decades Bangladesh, a low-lying country that endures frequent floods and storm damage, has built an extensive system of storm shelters. It has also installed an early warning system and set up evacuation routes. Improved storm-tracking techniques, plus radio broadcasts and loud speaker systems, enabled the government to warn residents in the path of the cyclone. As a result, an estimated 3.2 million people were evacuated from coastal areas before the storm hit.

It is clear that preparation saves lives, and this is a lesson we have to act on as we struggle to adapt to global warming. Recent reports on climate change predict rising sea levels and more severe storms as the world continues to warm, causing massive displacement. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN body that shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore this year, has said that Bangladesh will lose 10% of its surface area if sea levels rise 18 inches.

Last year a report by Sir Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change, predicted that “by the middle of the century, 200 million more people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods, and more intense droughts” as a result of global warming. The world is currently struggling to deal with 35 million refugees and internally displaced people forced from their homes by conflict, so the prospect of 200 million environmental refugees is daunting, to say the least.

Although we often think that the main victims of climate change will be in the developing world, the impact will be much greater. Rising sea levels could also pose risks to Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, London, Miami, New York, Shanghai, St. Petersburg and Tokyo.

Bangladesh’s response to Sidr shows that we can mitigate natural disasters with planning and enlightened public policies. The same applies to expected problems from climate change. The first challenge, of course, is to reduce hydrocarbon fuel consumption and greenhouse gases as quickly as possible. The next is to start thoughtful systematic planning for dealing with the consequences of a warmer planet characterized by rising sea levels, more devastating droughts and radically changed growing patterns.

All of these preparations—such as sea walls, planned population movements, stiffer building standards, new agricultural and irrigation techniques—will be complex, controversial and costly. They will also take time. An early start will reduce the potential human toll of climate change; a late start will increase future death, displacement, and destruction. The decision should be a no-brainer.

--Ken Bacon